In the United States in 2024 we have a heck of a year coming up, every year is important and there are always known and unknown events coming up with every year (2020 and 2001 were years with some big unexpected events...) but we can predict some big things:
The calendar says we are looking at a Leap Year and a CONUS Solar Eclipse but there is more from less than cosmic certainty!
This is an Election Year from the Iowa Caucuses in a few days to the General Election in November - this will almost certainly be a "rematch" election which we have not seen in a very long time. Voters can surprise us and November is a long ways off - but this will be the first "Post-Dobbs" election and we will see if a big impact will be made on down-ballot elections since how much power your state or local government has over your body just shot up for the present and near future. Plan 2025 is already out to entrench some right wing ideas deeper into the culture in the event of Republican successes.
Many states have lost the folks who BRAVELY rejected election shenanigans after the 2020 election, so the bets are off if they happen again.
Possibly see some 3rd party action from attention-loving-but-not-election-winning people like Kennedy Jr, Vivek, and some No Labels centrist. None of these would make good presidents but they all like campaigning and attention and money so I wouldn't count any of them off.
We will continue to see high profile but ultimately likely zero impact trials throughout the year. Trump absolutely attempted a half-assed insurgency and will likely never spend an second in jail for this. Or for fraud, or for contempt, or for not returning classified documents or for anything. Escaping consequences by way or paying a fine or having the Supreme Court throw out other decisions will be seen by his rank and file as exoneration and by everyone else as a failure of the system to ever hold the powerful to account. Also, picture of Hunter Biden's junk will continue to be a thing worthy of Congressional attention.
Ongoing GIANT international events: The War in Ukraine grinds on - I can't imagine Russian and Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely and regardless about infusions of funds and equipment from partners - the human toll on two nations that were ALREADY in a demographic collapse must be coming to some kind of an end or some tremendous changes are on the way.
The fallout of the October 7th Hamas attacks and the Israeli response. Israel is looking to END Hamas. Hamas's leadership is still very open about their desire to repeat the Oct 7th type attacks if they exist in any meaningful way in the future and - as such - the Israelis are not considering any option that lets Hamas exist any any operational way in the West Bank. The population of West Bank is enduring some horrible suffering that cannot be sustained and the end goal I imagine for Israel is something like what happened with the Uyghur Insurgency in China - using technology to screen out, monitor, and influence a population to essentially eliminate violent attacks with the goal of an independent state. Dystopian but maybe the least dystopian option? Israel has created barriers with walls, and "domes" and bunkers but the enduring existence of a population of millions under Hamas could not be mitigated any longer. I don't know if Hamas has the kind of allies that will actually put personnel and money against a powerful state who are dedicated to Hamas continuing to exist as a power anywhere. This has expanded to regional impacts already with Houthi attacks on shipping and impacts in Lebanon, the West Bank and Iran.
An Olympic year! This year hosted in Paris - We will see if there are boycotts and inspirational stories and such. Can't imagine the world events mentioned above will help things go smoothly.
MORE ELECTIONS
Upcoming Taiwan Election - this is underway and we will see how Taiwan shifts or doesn't by the 13th. The United States and China are the world's leading military powers and the independence of Taiwan is one of the few items that put these powers in direct competition.
India, Mexico, Pakistan, El Salvador and many more nations will follow with impactful elections in 2024.
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Put Up or Shut Up year for AI - BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS spent on Large Language Models and Generative AI and we will see if the savings/productivity/efficiency/innovation that was predicted comes to be or goes that way of Web 3.0 and NFTs. I'm a sceptic on certain categories of technology (Pilotless cars, Delivery Drones, Crime Prediction AI, etc...) where huge innovations have been just around the corner from impacting our lives any minute now for a decade or so. AI has already been named as the impetus for laying off thousands of employees and moving billions in funding, so we will see if "Is a good or service delivered improved in some way?" comes to be.
AI *IS* going to give us the first Video Deepfake election in 2024 - expect your grandma AND at least one friend or family member you would expect to know better to 100 believe a deepfake video of a prominent person is real in 2024.
Augmented Reality as the replacement for our smartphones. We are well over a decade into the iPhone and Android world and we are way past due for "rectangular screen with camera and mic" as our primary interface-with-computers tool. Lots of money and brains thrown at this - Apple rolling out it's headset this year - time to see if the reality lives up to the hype or fizzles out.
Amazon is set to launch a HUGE amount of satellites over 2024 that will turn their sat network from an idea with some successful prototypes to a functional service. Lots of events on the launch pad, network access area and night sky going to happen in the next 12 months. This is on top of the amazing growth in the SpaceX Starlink satellite network in low earth orbit.
The three letters American Conservatives are angry about this year are D.E.I you may remember other recent acronyms that were the targets of Conservatives as C.R.T and B.L.M - "Woke" was a deviation of using a word rather than three letters as a catchphrases to harness the way Conservatives were angry that minorities weren't silent and powerless - so DEI is a good return to form. Depending on November's results we will see if this gets replace with a new product after the election.
The continued death of Twitter - several alternate options have grown in the self-immolation of Twitter - BlueSky, Threads, Mastadon... The Bot Crowded unmoderated mess I get when I open Twitter is less and less appealing each time I open it. By the end of 2024 we will likely have a definitive winner of the "Short message Social Media Runner Up" or maybe even a competitor overtake Xitter in terms of ad revenue or use by actual people.
The Weight Loss Pills! My prediction is that many "famously fat" people who have ridden the ozempic/wegovy/contrave/etc... train to skinny are going to start hawking magical vinegar pills or sawdust shakes or whatever snake oil they partner with to cash in on their body transformations. Some competition may make these actually accessible but lots of money to be made on fat so who knows.
I HOPE we continue to see progress on Unionization gaining in popularity and actual workplace impacts, some progress on Student Loan Forgiveness similar to pandemic relief like businesses got with PPP loans.
We crossed alot of thresholds in 2023 that SHOULD impact our understanding of our world:
India passed China as the most populated nation in the world.
Mexico passed China as the United States biggest trading partner.
Coal continues to be overtaken by wind/solar/renewables as new capacity continues to be added to grids. I don't know how long to expect the culture war about coal to continue after the battle on the grid has already been decided.
Inherited Wealth passed Created Wealth as the source of riches for newly minted billionaires in 2023 - I don't expect this to impact any sense of natural superiority the wealthiest people on the planet continue to profess, but eye-rolling muscles continue to get stronger.
Hoping for some positives to get built up from the bottom and for those doing the building to hold on to some of those positives.
Good luck to all of you in the New Year.
