Feb 28th to Buy Nothing

 

Give Thanks and Celebrate in Times of Plenty

Give Thanks and Celebrate in times of plenty.

These times are not guaranteed.

It's Thanksgiving 2024.  I'm blessed with loving family and wonderful friends.  My household has steady income, working cars, a roof over our heads and the chance to spoil ourselves from time to time.

My countrymen are booking record travel for the Holidays and are likely going to enjoy record Gift Giving for each other.  This is good.  Celebrate one another.  Celebrate good times.

Enjoy this Holiday Season, it may be the last "Normal" Holiday Season we have for a while.

Much has happened.  The election hit like a knife in the back of everything we are when Americans are being our best.  We have gone from Early November when the winner of the election claimed to have never heard of Project 2025 to Late November when he is appointing the authors into Cabinet Positions.

There is a project for Billionaires to engage in their favorite hobby of explaining why our society can't afford food stamps of $6 a day for poor children and demanding - via messages sent from their yachts - that they eat just a little less.  Someone must sacrifice you see.

Unlike 2017, the institutions and guardrails and checks and balances our nation built for centuries have been declared unconstitutional by our Federalist Society Courts and there is no power to reign in what is coming.  What is coming is chaos.

The principle of Chesterston's Fence is "Do not remove a fence until you know why it was put up in the first place." and when "Deregulators" put the trespassers in charge of fence removals we are about to learn - in hard and painful ways - why our institutions were made.

The elimination of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the National Labor Relations Board, the Department of Education, The Affordable Care Act and many others has been on the radar of Project 2025ers for some time.  All of these have saved American dollars, American jobs and American lives.

Brexit inflicted tremendous pain on most Britons and now we have voted to inflict a much greater pain.

I expect a sugar high for months, maybe a year, where "Boy, we never needed those hand guards on the grinding machine!" before the bleeding and looting become unignorable.

I don't know how to stop this pain.  Be twenty times as cautious in your personal dealings and assume no rules protect you? But I know this:

Appreciate the good times with your family and loved ones.  Put up the tree, share gifts, give thanks, appreciate each other.  Build those bonds that may be tested in harder harsher times. 

Photo Credit: Johnny Dare

Another Labor Day!

 Another Labor Day has come to a close.  I spent the day teaching my son about medical self care and then closing the pool the last day we could swim in it.

I'm blessed with Family.

I'm blessed with love.

Some big challenging changed are happening with my family bit we will get through.

This was going to be a big year, Election, Olympics, big pushes in technology.  People are feeling it... the sensation that 5 years have happened in the last 6 months.

I'm hoping we see some Labor wins soon.  During the Pandemic there was alot of loss but a moment of power and leverage when "Essential" people learned that the world grinds to halt without them, but the we can have the  wealthiest jaunt off to some island and everything keeps going smooth.  A big backlash to that... but the fundamental truths remain.

Happy Labor Day!

INDEPENDENCE DAY (A Nation Worth Fighting For)

 July 4th, 1776 was the day of the Declaration of Independence of the United States of America.

We rejected Kings and the idea that it was the will of God that a handful of Despots rule over us, unaccountable to laws or to the people they preside over.

Rather:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness"

And:

"Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed"

Over the next centuries most of the world followed suit to some degree.  The idea of being born into this life with "Rights" instead of a "Station" spread.  Slavery was abolished, protections for everyday people became an endeavor of the state.  Lives lengthened, knowledge expanded, innovation grew.  

Later today I am going to drink red white and blue energy drinks and shoot off fireworks and enjoy being an over-the-top silly patriotic American.  But I while doing so I am reminded of my beliefs and our American values.  I believe that, despite recent opinions of a few, we are still a nation of laws where all men and women are created equal and that it is place and ideal worth fighting for.  Liberty and Justice for All. No More Kings.

We are lucky to be the inheritors of such a tradition.

The full text and image of the Declaration of Independence is here via the National Archives: https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript

2024 will be a heck of a year (but aren't they all)

I just wanted to write something as the first weeks of 2024 start to come into focus.

 In the United States in 2024 we have a heck of a year coming up, every year is important and there are always known and unknown events coming up with every year (2020 and 2001 were years with some big unexpected events...) but we can predict some big things: The calendar says we are looking at a Leap Year and a CONUS Solar Eclipse but there is more from less than cosmic certainty! 

This is an Election Year from the Iowa Caucuses in a few days to the General Election in November - this will almost certainly be a "rematch" election which we have not seen in a very long time. Voters can surprise us and November is a long ways off - but this will be the first "Post-Dobbs" election and we will see if a big impact will be made on down-ballot elections since how much power your state or local government has over your body just shot up for the present and near future. Plan 2025 is already out to entrench some right wing ideas deeper into the culture in the event of Republican successes.

Many states have lost the folks who BRAVELY rejected election shenanigans after the 2020 election, so the bets are off if they happen again. Possibly see some 3rd party action from attention-loving-but-not-election-winning people like Kennedy Jr, Vivek, and some No Labels centrist. None of these would make good presidents but they all like campaigning and attention and money so I wouldn't count any of them off. 

We will continue to see high profile but ultimately likely zero impact trials throughout the year. Trump absolutely attempted a half-assed insurgency and will likely never spend an second in jail for this. Or for fraud, or for contempt, or for not returning classified documents or for anything. Escaping consequences by way or paying a fine or having the Supreme Court throw out other decisions will be seen by his rank and file as exoneration and by everyone else as a failure of the system to ever hold the powerful to account. Also, picture of Hunter Biden's junk will continue to be a thing worthy of Congressional attention. 

 Ongoing GIANT international events: The War in Ukraine grinds on - I can't imagine Russian and Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely and regardless about infusions of funds and equipment from partners - the human toll on two nations that were ALREADY in a demographic collapse must be coming to some kind of an end or some tremendous changes are on the way.

The fallout of the October 7th Hamas attacks and the Israeli response. Israel is looking to END Hamas. Hamas's leadership is still very open about their desire to repeat the Oct 7th type attacks if they exist in any meaningful way in the future and - as such - the Israelis are not considering any option that lets Hamas exist any any operational way in the West Bank. The population of West Bank is enduring some horrible suffering that cannot be sustained and the end goal I imagine for Israel is something like what happened with the Uyghur Insurgency in China - using technology to screen out, monitor, and influence a population to essentially eliminate violent attacks with the goal of an independent state. Dystopian but maybe the least dystopian option? Israel has created barriers with walls, and "domes" and bunkers but the enduring existence of a population of millions under Hamas could not be mitigated any longer. I don't know if Hamas has the kind of allies that will actually put personnel and money against a powerful state who are dedicated to Hamas continuing to exist as a power anywhere. This has expanded to regional impacts already with Houthi attacks on shipping and impacts in Lebanon, the West Bank and Iran. 

 An Olympic year! This year hosted in Paris - We will see if there are boycotts and inspirational stories and such. Can't imagine the world events mentioned above will help things go smoothly. 

MORE ELECTIONS Upcoming Taiwan Election - this is underway and we will see how Taiwan shifts or doesn't by the 13th. The United States and China are the world's leading military powers and the independence of Taiwan is one of the few items that put these powers in direct competition. India, Mexico, Pakistan, El Salvador and many more nations will follow with impactful elections in 2024. ' 

Put Up or Shut Up year for AI - BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS spent on Large Language Models and Generative AI and we will see if the savings/productivity/efficiency/innovation that was predicted comes to be or goes that way of Web 3.0 and NFTs. I'm a sceptic on certain categories of technology (Pilotless cars, Delivery Drones, Crime Prediction AI, etc...) where huge innovations have been just around the corner from impacting our lives any minute now for a decade or so. AI has already been named as the impetus for laying off thousands of employees and moving billions in funding, so we will see if "Is a good or service delivered improved in some way?" comes to be. AI *IS* going to give us the first Video Deepfake election in 2024 - expect your grandma AND at least one friend or family member you would expect to know better to 100 believe a deepfake video of a prominent person is real in 2024. 

Augmented Reality as the replacement for our smartphones. We are well over a decade into the iPhone and Android world and we are way past due for "rectangular screen with camera and mic" as our primary interface-with-computers tool. Lots of money and brains thrown at this - Apple rolling out it's headset this year - time to see if the reality lives up to the hype or fizzles out. 

Amazon is set to launch a HUGE amount of satellites over 2024 that will turn their sat network from an idea with some successful prototypes to a functional service. Lots of events on the launch pad, network access area and night sky going to happen in the next 12 months. This is on top of the amazing growth in the SpaceX Starlink satellite network in low earth orbit. 

The three letters American Conservatives are angry about this year are D.E.I you may remember other recent acronyms that were the targets of Conservatives as C.R.T and B.L.M - "Woke" was a deviation of using a word rather than three letters as a catchphrases to harness the way Conservatives were angry that minorities weren't silent and powerless - so DEI is a good return to form. Depending on November's results we will see if this gets replace with a new product after the election. 

The continued death of Twitter - several alternate options have grown in the self-immolation of Twitter - BlueSky, Threads, Mastadon... The Bot Crowded unmoderated mess I get when I open Twitter is less and less appealing each time I open it. By the end of 2024 we will likely have a definitive winner of the "Short message Social Media Runner Up" or maybe even a competitor overtake Xitter in terms of ad revenue or use by actual people. 

The Weight Loss Pills! My prediction is that many "famously fat" people who have ridden the ozempic/wegovy/contrave/etc... train to skinny are going to start hawking magical vinegar pills or sawdust shakes or whatever snake oil they partner with to cash in on their body transformations. Some competition may make these actually accessible but lots of money to be made on fat so who knows. 

I HOPE we continue to see progress on Unionization gaining in popularity and actual workplace impacts, some progress on Student Loan Forgiveness similar to pandemic relief like businesses got with PPP loans. 

We crossed alot of thresholds in 2023 that SHOULD impact our understanding of our world: India passed China as the most populated nation in the world. 

Mexico passed China as the United States biggest trading partner. 

Coal continues to be overtaken by wind/solar/renewables as new capacity continues to be added to grids. I don't know how long to expect the culture war about coal to continue after the battle on the grid has already been decided. 

Inherited Wealth passed Created Wealth as the source of riches for newly minted billionaires in 2023 - I don't expect this to impact any sense of natural superiority the wealthiest people on the planet continue to profess, but eye-rolling muscles continue to get stronger. 

Hoping for some positives to get built up from the bottom and for those doing the building to hold on to some of those positives. 

Good luck to all of you in the New Year.

The small perspective I can add

Blood and ink are being spilled on this as I write - others know deeper and closer things about this conflict but I want to add some context for people from my neck of the woods to make things a little more clear.

Israel and Palestine are SMALL.

Israel has a population of around 9.3 Million People.  For a Midwest Perspective that is like Missouri (6.1 million) and Iowa (3.2 Million) put together.  This is not an tremendous population to field a Military, have an world class economy, embassies around the globe, etc...

In terms of size Israel is smaller still.  The entire nation of Israel is 8,630 Square Miles (with some wiggle room about borders).  Missouri by comparison is 69,715 Square miles (with some wiggle room for river movement).  Israel would be just a sliver of the state of Missouri.  

Gaza - in and around where all of the Hamas/IDF fighting is happening is smaller still.  About 2 Million People (for perspective that is the population of the Kansas City Metro Area) all squeezed into an area of 141 square miles. (for perspective, that is close to the size of Kansas City, KS 128 Square Miles - No suburbs, no KCMO, just Kansas City, Kansas)

 I am not a geographer - but this may give you an idea.  If not for checkpoints the whole of Israel is a half-day road trip.  There is no "Far Away from the Conflict" over there.

300,000+ Israeli Military Reservists have been called up for service in the Israeli Military.   For comparison, that is more uniformed military than the U.S. ever had deployed at one time in all of Iraq (169,000 Square Miles and >40 Million people)

The dead are still being counted and the dying rescued but Hamas inflicted over a thousand casualties in Israel at one time which is the most in any attack on that nation in my lifetime (over 40 years ago).  This is not the kind of violence we have seen in conflicts like this... not a suicide crash or a planted bomb or poison gas, but small arms attacks vehicle to vehicle, house to house, up close and in person.  Each casualty was a deliberate choice, violence was livestreamed, recorded, shared and celebrated as it was being done.  Thousands of hours of the worst gore in HD for the world to see all made in a matter of days.

Whatever progress has been made towards peace since the last intifada is a distant memory.  The sense of peace living with a security barrier and Iron Dome is gone forever.  I know enough Israelis to know what is coming will be overwhelming, transformational, brutal and swift.

The Israelis right now don't care about any statements from governors, state senators or university kids in Crapsville State U.  Those are static in the background to them.  Even statements from the President and EU allies don't really matter.  Israel is not in the "build a coalition" and "ask permission" phases of anything.

The only statement that mattered was then President Joe Biden ordered the U.S.S. Gerald Ford Aircraft Carrier Group to the Mediterranean Coast to support their efforts and ordered C-17s of supplies to support the efforts to be flown in.  We have an ally in that region and it is not Hamas.

Israel - despite a reputation for an advanced, intrusive, and complete surveillance state utterly failed to see a very large and coordinated operation happen literally in it's territory.  NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING RIGHT NOW or the attack would not have happened. 

The Israelis and any other forces are in "Defeat the enemy before they can do more damage" mode or "Rescue the people we can" mode and CERTAINLY not "Let's learn lessons" mode for right now.  Do not believe anyone who has claims they know who/how/exactly why this day/etc... about this attack.  A handful of Hamas fighters know for sure and everyone else is in the wind.

It has been a long time since I have been in the region, but I know that fingers will be pointed and the most opportunistic among us will be using this tragedy to forward their agendas.  To hell with them.  None of us who lived through 9/11 should ever again get dragged into unrelated international agendas because some people are ghoulishly exploiting a tragedy.  Don't trust "Former Hamas Leaders" or "Middle East Policy Experts" or anyone to be truthful and informed about anything yet.

Support our ally as they bury the dead, mourn the losses, and engage those who carried out these attacks.  There are something like an estimated 600,000 children under age 10 in the Gaza strip and I hope innocent lives unconnected to the Hamas attacks will be spared.  Hamas has absolutely in the past taken their own civilians to be used as human shields and will absolutely do so in this fight as well.  I hope I am never again in the position to have to think about balancing protecting civilian lives while I try to protect my own.

Any international outcry to the Israelis before Hamas is COMPLETELY removed from Gaza will fall on deaf ears.  Bodies are still being identified, hostages are still in Hamas hands.  

The proportions of Israeli responses to rockets and attacks in the past years are known:

*source Forbes Magazine.

Israel lost over a THOUSAND Israelis and visitors from the United States, Thailand, Nepal, Russia, Argentina, Ukraine, Canada, Germany, France.,...  The chart above indicates the scale of losses they are willing to see on the other side of their operations.

Times of Israel Foreigners Lost

The world is not jumping to stop the Israelis from rescuing who they can and retaliating against the attackers.  I don't think it would give the Israelis a moment's pause if they did.

I do not think the Hamas we have known since their 2006 election victory will be around in any meaningful capacity in the Gaza Strip much longer and maybe nowhere.

9-11-2023

 Had a minute of silence at work for 9/11 today.  Talked to a coworker who was in first grade when the attacks happened.  

Hard to explain the different world that existed before then.  Travel, Finance, Military Service, things changed tremendously.

The attacks happened in 2001, I went to the recruiters got on a wait list*, got some things in order, and was off to training by 2002.  Those attacks would broadly define the next decade of my life.

*- Not joking, there was a months long waiting list to ship off to Basic Training with all the post 9-11 enlistments.  Hard to imagine today.